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Potash prices: short-term market is difficult to break

Author:zhangfei   Update time:2014-07-18

Quotes of the way compared to nitrogen and ammonium phosphate prices Xianyihouyang dismal domestic potash market in 2014 in the first half as a whole be tepid, smooth operation.

A quarter of the domestic fertilizer market, the overall market deserted, but in downstream demand and tight supply upstream of the double impact, potash prices remain thriving, do not fall up. In the second quarter to enter the domestic potash market traditional off-season, with the succession of potash big contract goods arriving in the first half, and the downstream fertilizer plant gradual weakening demand for raw materials, potassium chloride prices declined. But in hot potassium nitrate and compound fertilizer production enterprises can not fully support the release, the price continued to show upward trend.

Potassium chloride into July, along with the end of the summer with a fertilizer downstream fertilizer plant shut down for maintenance and more, the overall operating rate of less than 3 percent, a further decline of potassium chloride demand for raw materials. In the first half the amount of the contract is recognized basic maritime shipping ends June vessel arrivals are more abundant deposits in Hong Kong. Port of turnover in the doldrums, traders will ship intense. Currently, the port offer mainstream Russian Red K 1960 ~ 1980 yuan (t price, the same below), white potassium quotes from 2000 to 2020 yuan, the price stability Ming kicked upstairs, each single transaction rebate discount rate is increasing. After entering the second half of the volume from the previous month will be shipped to a certain decrease in the second half of potash big contract by the downstream effects of short-term market downturn, buyers and sellers have no formal negotiations will, as expected in the third quarter of seaborne imports of potassium chloride inward reduction in the number of domestic pressures will keep a certain ease. China as one of the world's potash demand and major importing countries, international suppliers are struggling to carve their own market share. Although the Urals potash new CEO recently published a statement saying that the second half of Ukraine will take potassium or limited production price sales model, but the global oversupply of potash is undeniable reality, and July 30 last year, Ukrainian potassium from BPC marketing alliance, has become fuse into the global potash prices cost competition period.

Domestic side, Qinghai Salt Lake in the first half of the entire vehicle production in 2014 is expected to yield expected to exceed 4 million tons. Growth and innovation in domestic sales model of self-sufficiency, are to some extent affected the pattern of the domestic supply of potassium chloride market, the addition of the right to speak Chinese imports of potash negotiations at the same time, competition in the supply of several parties also pulled down the potash market prices, which were fertilizer terminal in China is undoubtedly a good thing, but in the long run, perhaps the price should not be the only factor affecting the pattern. Currently around 60% of the mainstream of potassium chloride salt Chukujiage yuan in 2000.

As another supply channels China potassium chloride market, border imports significantly reduced compared to the first half of the same period last year. In recent years, land border with its price advantage, can gradually become one of the main Chinese potash supply and shipping, domestic third. By the first half of the Chinese market, the impact of lower prices, Russia has reduced the supply to the Chinese market, the price of the goods destined for a better Brazil and European markets. After entering the second half, there is news that Russia will increase the supply of the Chinese market to ensure that its market share in China, but with the rise of rail freight each year, selling land border radius gradually compressed. Currently the Russian port of potassium quote 1780-1800 yuan red, white potassium offer 1,850 yuan, traded favorable range. On the current market situation, prices will remain weak in the short term consolidation. Long-term trend will be the fall of the Northeast market demand conditions.

After entering the second half of potassium sulfate, potassium chloride compared to the market downturn, potassium sulfate market continues to improve. After Lop Nur potash into the parking maintenance, reducing the supply available on the market. On the other hand, by the by-product hydrochloric acid sluggish sales impact Mannheim potassium sulfate production capacity of enterprises still can not all be released. Most of the company's existing orders are scheduled to 1 to 2 months later, the Lord sent pre-orders, almost no inventory, some companies limit access new single, before the arrival of autumn fertilizer, potassium sulfate market is expected to continue to be optimistic. (

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