Recently, the China International nitrogenous fertilizer, methanol General Assembly in 2014, the experts from the International Fertilizer Industry Association and International Fertilizer Market Analysis agencies on the status of the national fertilizer market supply and demand and future prospects in-depth analysis. Reporters learned from the meeting, the International Nitrogen supply and demand in five years will be to maintain a certain growth, and overcapacity trend will intensify. In this case, China Nitrogen weak position in international trade is difficult to reverse, it will become an important factor in China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Forced depth adjustment.

According to the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) predicts that from 2013 to 2018, the overall global nitrogen fertilizer consumption will increase by 7%, with an average annual increase of 1.5%. Effective global nitrogen production capacity will increase by 28 million tons in five years, an increase of 34 million tons of urea supply, with an average annual increase of 3.8%.

Integer Research Ltd Senior fertilizer according to British analyst Stephen Duke British point of view, the cost of nitrogen fertilizer prices now in the driver stage is closely related to energy prices. This means that cheap energy has become the biggest driving force of nitrogen fertilizer development. Therefore, with the development of cheap shale gas in North America with cost advantages will become an important market for nitrogen fertilizer production capacity expansion. Statistics show that there are already 26 investors interested in investing in U.S. factories.

The Chinese nitrogen mainly anthracite as raw materials. Stephen Duke of data provided, there are differences due to the raw material, and more domestic spare capacity, China is in a higher position nitrogen fertilizer production cost of nitrogen fertilizer in the international cost curve, which means that corporate profits at a low level.

Data show that the United States urea production cost is only about 60% of China; rather cheap with rich oil and gas resources in the Middle East, the urea production cost is only about 40% of China. Resource cost pressures will pose a huge challenge to the development of China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry.

Especially this year, FOB Yuzhny urea fell to $ 300 (t price, the same below), reaching its lowest point in recent years. The recent Indian urea tender CIF appeared low of $ 266, the maximum ex-factory price of urea is not equivalent to China more than 1300 yuan. In this case, compared with the current average cost of production of urea in China, most companies are losses.

CRU nitrogen analysis manager Avery de Wallace believes that this situation although the decision of the Chinese export volume of nitrogen, but neither is the price of nitrogenous fertilizer makers, it is impossible to maintain long-term low-cost export situation.

The next few years, by multiple factors, it is difficult to improve the international price of nitrogen fertilizer. First, global overcapacity will suppress prices; Second, 2014 may be "El Ni？o" climate change will bring greater impact agricultural production, is not conducive to the market demand for the release of nitrogen; three cheap shale gas development in North America, will pull low nitrogen fertilizer production costs