Urea market is about to enter the off-season, the export situation is difficult favorable good

2014 has been an instant half back urea market in the first half, the most obvious is the large landslide prices in Shandong Province as an example, the price fell 250 yuan / ton, down 15%. July, the market oncoming season, but the export window has opened. Current simple port and surrounding estimates of inventories amounted to about 2 million tons of urea, combined with weak demand, although India has started the second bidding, but the positive is insufficient to significantly raise prices.
Currently, East China, Central China, North China agricultural fertilizer market has basically been completed, resulting in the dealer late dry weather may significantly reduce the amount of margin calls, are now mainstream factory price of only about 1,480 yuan in Shandong Province / ton, Two Rivers region has dropped to the low-end transaction price about 1430 yuan / ton, Shanxi Province dropped back to the low end of the sales price 1400 yuan / ton, fertilizer sales continued well into calm market Anhui area, the price fell to around 1,520 yuan / ton, but even though prices continue to fall, shipping difficulties still the major manufacturers headache.
The face of the domestic market in the doldrums, the major manufacturers will have to invest in the eyes of the export market, the small particles of guidance at $ 258-260 FOB / ton, equivalent prices of about 1350-1400 yuan / ton, for most manufacturers to said it is still upside down. July 14, China Nitrogen Fertilizer Association invited numerous business representatives held a meeting in Beijing, the initiative behind the Indian tender price to $ FOB273 / ton, and was adopted unanimously participating enterprises. But I think this price is not feasible, the off-season market is about sweeping the country, whether in Hong Kong or factory stock there exist certain pressure, coupled with the difficulties some manufacturers capital chain, so we can not rule out the possibility again cheap exports.
Latest news shows India tenders received second urea granule size fixed volume of 3.9 million tons of tender, a total of 33 participants in the tender, the lowest three prices were CIF 274.77,274.87 and $ 275 / t, total of about 580,000 tons. In accordance with the equivalent of the fob price of only $ 257 / ton, the price of about 1,490 yuan in Hong Kong / ton. Importers of urea in India should be higher than the initial estimate of 1.2 million tons, September 7 loaded. According to the current trend of the domestic market, the last traded price is difficult to make a change, it means that most manufacturers are still facing the export price 1400 yuan / ton or less.
The current domestic market demand has almost exhausted, if the export of low-cost shipping, then the off-season export volume rather than just go walking at a loss given a few manufacturers; If you still insist on resisting low pressure port of the product may cause reflux , resulting in the domestic market is too congested, prices fall equally no doubt, and some companies will face shutdown because of funding problems. The situation is grim season placed in the entrance to the market, the major manufacturers in the choice should not only consider the cost of capital, inventory and other issues, even going to consider in the future if the urea market downturn protracted problem. It is destined to be a battle without guns, I hope there are many excellent companies to overcome difficulties and emerge